Identification and mitigation of high-risk pregnancy with the Community Maternal Danger Score Mobile Application in Gboko, Nigeria.

Introduction Risk analyses within rural regions of Nigeria are not routinely conducted, yet could help inform access to skilled birth care. The objective of this study was to assess and compare the proportion of pregnant women at risk for maternal mortality or morbidity in Benue State, Nigeria by analysing data collected during routine antenatal visits and through the Community Maternal Danger Score (CMDS), a validated risk-analysis tool. Methods Two cohorts, comprised of pregnant women presenting to primary healthcare centres within Gboko, Benue State between 2015–2017 and 2020–2021, were included in this study. The 2015–2017 cohort had their risk assessed retrospectively through analysis of routinely collected data. Identification of risk was based on their age, parity, and disease status (HIV and diabetes). The 2020–2021 cohort had their risk assessed prospectively using the CMDS. Results Routinely collected data from 2015–2017 demonstrated that up to 14.9% of women in Gboko were at risk for mortality or morbidity. The CMDS reported that up to 21.5% of women were at a similar level of risk; a significant difference of 6.6% (p = 0.006). The CMDS was more efficient in obtaining and assessing this data, and the identification of risk occurred in real-time. Conclusion Routine data collected in Gboko identifies a high proportion of pregnant women at risk for mortality or morbidity. The CMDS is an evidence-based risk analysis tool that expands on this assessment by also estimating individual and community-level risk, which allows for more efficient mitigation and prevention strategies of maternal mortality

Urban growth dynamics and expansion forms in 11 Tanzanian cities from 1990 to 2020

With rapid urban expansion across Tanzania, there is a need to institute steps to address factors and forms as well as impacts and challenges associated with the observed trend. This study’s aim is to use spatial urban landscape indices to analyze the spatial changes in urban forms, patterns, and rates across 11 urban centers in Tanzania over a 30-year study period (1990–2020). During the past three decades, urban lands of 11 cities and town in Tanzania have grown by a total of 480 km2. Leapfrog growth was found as the most dominant form of urban expansion in Tanzania while Dodoma, the capital city of Tanzania, had the highest rate of urban expansion when compared to all other individual cities. The most robust and significant interaction of the AWMLEI and MLEI was found in Kigoma, Arusha, Mtwara, Mafinga, and Tunduma cities. In contrast, Mbeya agricultural city, Arusha the tourist city, Tabora, and Geita Lake zone areas did show their own peculiarities revealing an interesting spatial temporal variation in rate and form of expansion. The outcome of this study reveals that the influence and management of economic and socio-cultural opportunities will be an effective tool for the determination of the rapidly expanding cities and towns of Tanzania

Urban sprawl and its impact on sustainable urban development: a combination of remote sensing and social media data

Urbanization is one of the most impactful human activities across the world today affecting the quality of urban life and its sustainable development. Urbanization in Africa is occurring at an unprecedented rate and it threatens the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Urban sprawl has resulted in unsustainable urban development patterns from social, environmental, and economic perspectives. This study is among the first examples of research in Africa to combine remote sensing data with social media data to determine urban sprawl from 2011 to 2017 in Morogoro urban municipality, Tanzania. Random Forest (RF) method was applied to accomplish imagery classification and location-based social media (Twitter usage) data were obtained through a Twitter Application Programming Interface (API). Morogoro urban municipality was classified into built-up, vegetation, agriculture, and water land cover classes while the classification results were validated by the generation of 480 random points. Using the Kernel function, the study measured the location of Twitter users within a 1 km buffer from the center of the city. The results indicate that, expansion of the city (built-up land use), which is primarily driven by population expansion, has negative impacts on ecosystem services because pristine grasslands and forests which provide essential ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and support for biodiversity have been replaced by built-up land cover. In addition, social media usage data suggest that there is the concentration of Twitter usage within the city center while Twitter usage declines away from the city center with significant spatial and numerical increase in Twitter usage in the study area. The outcome of the study suggests that the combination of remote sensing, social sensing, and population data were useful as a proxy/inference for interpreting urban sprawl and status of access to urban services and infrastructure in Morogoro, and Africa city where data for urban planning is often unavailable, inaccurate, or stale

Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Droughts are one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. In large regions of Africa, droughts can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk management. Taking North and West Africa as the study area, this study adopted multi-source data and various statistical analysis methods, such as the joint probability density function (JPDF), to study the meteorological drought and return years across a long term (1982−2018). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to evaluate the large-scale spatiotemporal drought characteristics at 1−12-month timescales. The intensity, severity, and duration of drought in the study area were evaluated using SPI−12. At the same time, the JPDF was used to determine the return year and identify the intensity, duration, and severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the trend of SPI and annual precipitation at 1−12-month timescales. The pattern of drought occurrence and its correlation with climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the drought magnitude (DM) of the study area was the highest in 2008−2010, 2000−2003, and 1984−1987, with the values of 5.361, 2.792, and 2.187, respectively, and the drought lasting for three years in each of the three periods. At the same time, the lowest DM was found in 1997−1998, 1993−1994, and 1991−1992, with DM values of 0.113, 0.658, and 0.727, respectively, with a duration of one year each time. It was confirmed that the probability of return to drought was higher when the duration of drought was shorter, with short droughts occurring more regularly, but not all severe droughts hit after longer time intervals. Beyond this, we discovered a direct connection between drought and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) over Morocco, Algeria, and the sub-Saharan countries, and some slight indications that drought is linked with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over Guinea, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria

A Geospatial Approach to Sustainable Urban Planning: Lessons for Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania

Sustainable urban planning is essential in mediating the natural and built environments globally, yet, there is little progress as regards its attainment in developing countries. Rapid and unplanned urbanization continue to threaten the sustainability of many cities in Africa. By selecting Morogoro Municipal Council (MMC) in Tanzania as an example, this study applied well-known remote sensing techniques to understand the dynamics of urban growth and the implications for sustainable urban planning. The study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics for eighteen years (2000–2018) based on urban land density using gradient and grid-based analysis to further examine land use and urban land density nexus. The results indicate declining urban land densities with distance to the city center, indicating a less compact and fragmented development at the urban fringes; and northward development with limited development to the south of MCC. The knowledge and understanding of the patterns of spatio-temporal conditions, land use planning, and management interventions in MMC are necessary for addressing the inadequacies associated with rapid urbanization within the study area. On this basis, we propose a shift from the modernist to the communicative planning strategy that strongly integrates the urban social, economic, and environmental imperatives, while being adaptable to evolving realities. This plan should also aim to curtail urban sprawl and create a viable city system and economically prosperous city structure for MMC

Comparative studies on the structure of an upland African stream ecosystem

Upland stream systems have been extensively investigated in Europe, North America and Australasia and many of the central ideas concerning their function are based on these systems. One central paradigm, the river continuum concept is ultimately derived from those North American streams whose catchments remain forested with native vegetation. Streams of the tropics may or may not fit the model. They have been little studied. The Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains of north-eastern Tanzania offers an opportunity to bring these naturally forested systems to the attention of the ecological community. This article describes a comparison made between two lengths of the River Dodwe in this area. The work was carried out by a group of postgraduate students from eighteen European and African countries with advice from five staff members, as part of a course organised by the Tropical Biology Association. Rigorous efforts were made to standardise techniques, in a situation where equipment and laboratory facilities were very basic, through a management structure and deliberate allocation of work to specialists in each area.The article offers a summary of invertebrate communities found in the stream and its biomass. Crabs seem to be the key organism in both sections of the streams

Comparative studies on the structure of an upland African stream ecosystem

Upland stream systems have been extensively investigated in Europe,North America and Australasia and many of the central ideas concerningtheir function are based on these systems. One central paradigm, the rivercontinuum concept (Vannote et al. 1980) is ultimately derived from thoseNorth American streams whose catchments remain forested with nativevegetation

Suitability mapping for rice cultivation in Benue State, Nigeria using satellite data

With rising population, decline in soil productivity and land-based conflicts, the per-capita land availability for cultivation is rapidly decreasing within Benue State, a largely agrarian and small-holder setting. This study attempts a local-level support for the actualisation of Sustainable Development Goal Number 2 (“end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture”) by 2030. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method, remote sensing data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and in-situ data from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were analyzed by GIS techniques to map the suitability of rice cultivation in the study area, with the integration of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover, slope, temperature, precipitation and soil parameters (cation exchange capacity, pH, bulk density, organic carbon). We apply the various statistical parameters that include mean spatial NDVI; correlation coefficient, standard deviation and Root Mean Square (RMS) between CRU and NIMET data. Spatial regression trend analysis is conducted between CRU precipitation and NDVI and between CRU temperature and NDVI from 1985 to 2015. The results reveal that NDVI in highly suitable rice planting regions is higher than marginally suitable regions except in the months of October and November, which shows that the highly suitable regions will yield better than the marginally suitable regions during the dry season. Additionally, NDVI is seasonally bimodal in response to precipitation, meaning that vegetation vigor is more dependent on precipitation than temperature. Finally, the correlation coefficient, standard deviation and RMS between CRU and NIMET precipitation data shows 0.42, 108, and 110, respectively, while these three factors between CRU and NIMET temperature data shows 0.88, 1.60, and 0.86, respectively. In conclusion, the MCDM approach reveals that upland is more suitable for rice cultivation in Benue State when comparing with the area provided by the Global Land Cover and National Mappings Organization (GLCNMO) data

Assessment and validation of the Community Maternal Danger Score algorithm.

BackgroundHigh rates of maternal mortality in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) are associated with the lack of skilled birth attendants (SBAs) at delivery. Risk analysis tools may be useful to identify pregnant women who are at risk of mortality in LMICs. We sought to develop and validate a low-cost maternal risk tool, the Community Maternal Danger Score (CMDS), which is designed to identify pregnant women who need an SBA at delivery.MethodsTo design the CMDS algorithm, an initial scoping review was conducted to identify predictors of the need for an SBA. Medical records of women who delivered at the Federal Medical Centre in Makurdi, Nigeria (2019-2020) were examined for predictors identified from the literature review. Outcomes associated with the need for an SBA were recorded: caesarean section, postpartum hemorrhage, eclampsia, and sepsis. A maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was determined. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the predictive ability of the CMDS algorithm.ResultsSeven factors from the literature predicted the need for an SBA: age (under 20 years of age or 35 and older), parity (nulliparity or grand-multiparity), BMI (underweight or overweight), fundal height (less than 35 cm or 40 cm and over), adverse obstetrical history, signs of pre-eclampsia, and co-existing medical conditions. These factors were recorded in 589 women of whom 67% required an SBA (n = 396) and 1% died (n = 7). The MMR was 1189 per 100,000 (95% CI 478-2449). Signs of pre-eclampsia, obstetrical history, and co-existing conditions were associated with the need for an SBA. Age was found to interact with parity, suggesting that the CMDS requires adjustment to indicate higher risk among younger multigravida and older primigravida women. The CMDS algorithm had an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77) for predicting whether women required an SBA, and an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.67-1.00) for in-hospital mortality.ConclusionsThe CMDS is a low-cost evidence-based tool that uses 7 risk factors assessed on 589 women from Makurdi. Non-specialist health workers can use the CMDS to standardize assessment and encourage pregnant women to seek an SBA in preparation for delivery, thus improving care in countries with high rates of maternal mortality

GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF WETLANDS DEGRADATION IN MAKURDI, NIGERIA

Globally, the amount of wetlands have being on the decline due to the fragile nature of these ecosystems and unplanned land consumption practices. This has created pressure on suitable land for cultivation in most developing countries where most of the growing food demand originates. Previous studies revealed that wetlands and agricultural landuse dominated the landscape of Makurdi. However, the trend is changing in recent times. Makurdi has undergone tremendous transformation in its landuse/landcover due to rapid urbanization since 1976 when it became the capital city of Benue State. To estimate the land cover change in Makurdi, Landsat ETM, ETM+ and OLI satellite data for 1996, 2006 and 2016, respectively were utilised. The study adapted the Kappa index for assessing accuracy of the land use/cover maps generated from the analysis to improve the accuracy of results. An accuracy level of 80 to 91 % was achieved. The results reveal an overall significant increase in built-up area and other land uses at the expense of wetlands from 26.3 % in 1996 to 18.1 % in 2016. Further analysis includes the land consumption rate (LCR) and land absorption coefficient (LAC) which reveals the role of population expansion in the recorded levels of wetland losses recorded in this study. The study projects a further decline of wetland cover by 33.15 km2 (or by 22.57 %) in 2026 if steps are not instituted to control the rate of decline. Suggestions are made to align with and incorporate into policy the strategic need to adopt the provisions of the SDGs at local levels if we intend to avert the massive failure recorded by the now rested MDGs